Ukusukela phakathiNgoDisemba, kuye kwakho ukunyuka okuphawulekayo kwamaxabiso e-aluminium, kunye ne-aluminiyam yaseShanghai iphinda iphinda ibuyele malunga ne-8.6% ukusuka ephantsi kwe-18,190 yuan / ton, kunye
I-LME i-aluminiyam inyuka ukusuka kumphakamo we-2,109 yeedola zase-US/itoni ukuya kwi-2,400 yeedola zase-US/toni.Kwelinye icala, oku kungenxa yoluvo lwentengiso yentengiso enethemba
malunga US Federal Reserve sika izinga kwenzala ukunciphisa okulindelekileyo, kwaye kwelinye icala, kuye kwakho ukunyuka kabukhali ngenxa yokwanda iindleko-icala ekuncipheni imveliso alumina idityaniswe yingxaki yoLwandle Olubomvu.Oku kunyuka kwe-aluminiyam yaseShanghai kuqhekeze ukuguquguquka
Uluhlu lwenziwe ngaphezulu konyaka, kunye ne-aluminiyam ye-LME ebonisa ubuthathaka ngakumbi ngokuthelekisayo.Kwiveki ephelileyo, njengoko abanye abavelisi be-alumina baqala kwakhona
imveliso, ukunciphisa iinkxalabo zobonelelo, omabini amaxabiso e-alumina kunye ne-aluminiyam afumene ukurhoxiswa okuncinci.
1. I-Bauxite ore Ukunqongophala kokuNikezela nge-ore kusaza kuthintelwa ukukhutshwa koMveliso weAlumina
Ngokubhekiselele kwi-bauxite ore yasekhaya, amazinga okusebenza kwemigodi aphantsi ngokwendalo ebusika.Ingozi yasemgodini eShanxi ekupheleni konyaka ophelileyo ikhokelele ukuba imigodi yasekuhlaleni inqunyanyiswe
imveliso yokuhlolwa kunye nokulungiswa, ngaphandle kokulindela ukuqaliswa kwakhona kwixesha elifutshane.Umgodi weSanmenxia eHenan awuzange uchaze ukuqalisa kwakhona, nge
yehla imveliso yentsimbi ePingdingshan.Kukho imigodi emitsha embalwa evulwe eGuizhou, kwaye unikezelo lwe-bauxite ore kulindeleke ukuba luhlale luqinile ixesha elide, eliya kuxhasa ngamandla amaxabiso e-alumina.Ngokumalunga nentsimbi ekrwada kumazwe angaphandle, ifuthe le
Ukunqongophala konikezelo lwamafutha ngenxa yokuqhuma kwe-oyile ye-Guinea kwidepho ye-oyile iyaqhubeka, ibonakaliswe ngokukodwa kwiindleko zepetroli ezikhulayo kwiinkampani zemigodi kunye nokunyuka kwamazinga okuthutha elwandle.
Okwangoku, lixesha eliphezulu lokuthunyelwa kwe-ore yaseGuinea.Ngokutsho kweSMM, ukuthunyelwa kwe-alumina ore kwiveki ephelileyo ukusuka eGuinea kufikelele kwi-2.2555 yezigidi zeetoni.
ukwanda kweetoni ezingama-392,900 kwiveki ephelileyo kwiitoni ezizigidi ezisisi-1.8626.Imeko enzima kuLwandle oluBomvu inempembelelo encinci kuthutho lwe-alumina ore,
njengoko malunga namashumi asixhenxe eepesenti ze-alumina ekrwada yaseTshayina ethengiweyo isuka eGuinea, kwaye imithwalo esuka eGuinea naseOstreliya ayidluli kuLwandle Olubomvu.
Impembelelo inokuvakala kwinxalenye encinci yothutho lwe-alumina ore ukusuka eTurkey.
iprofayile ye-aluminiumNgenxa yokunqongophala kobonelelo lwe-alumina ore kunye nezithintelo zemveliso yokusingqongileyo, kuye kwakho ukwehla okubonakalayo kumthamo wemveliso ye-alumina ngaphambili.Ngokutsho kuka-Aladdin, ukususela ngoLwesihlanu odlulileyo, amandla okusebenza kwe-alumina ayengama-81.35 eetoni zezigidi, kunye nezinga lokusebenza kwe-78.7%, ephantsi kakhulu kunoluhlu oluqhelekileyo lwe-84-87 yezigidi zeetoni kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka.Amaxabiso amabala e-alumina anyukile kunye namaxabiso exesha elizayo.NgoLwesihlanu odlulileyo, ixabiso lendawo kwingingqi yeHenan yayiyi-3,320 yuan / ton, inyuke nge-190 yuan / ton ukusuka kwiveki edlulileyo.Amaxabiso eSpot kwingingqi ye-Shanxi anyuke nge-180 yuan ukuya kwi-3,330 yuan/toni xa kuthelekiswa neveki ephelileyo.Kwiveki ephelileyo, ngomgangatho womoya ophuculweyo kwezinye iindawo zaseShandong naseHenan kunye nokuphakanyiswa kwezilumkiso zemozulu ezingcolisekileyo, iinkampani ezininzi ze-alumina zaphinda zaqalisa ukuvelisa, uninzi lwazo ziimpawu ezifumanekayo zokuhanjiswa.Inkampani enkulu kwingingqi ye-Shanxi eyanciphisa umthamo wayo wemveliso ngenxa yeengxaki zokubala iphinda iqalise imveliso, kunye nezinye iinkampani, ezibonisa ukuba imeko eqinile yempahla ye-alumina ngexesha elifutshane inokuphucula.Nangona kunjalo, ingxaki yokungonelanga kwe-ore kulindeleke ukuba iqhubeke nokubonelela ngenkxaso kumaxabiso e-alumina kwixesha eliphakathi.
2. Iindleko ezongeziweyo kunye neeNzuzo ze-Aluminium Electrolysis
Ngokumalunga neendleko ze-aluminium electrolysis, ngaphandle kokunyuka okukhulu kwamaxabiso e-alumina, amaxabiso ombane kunye ne-caustic soda ahlala ezinzileyo.Ekuqaleni kwenyanga, ishishini lasekhaya elaziwayo lehlise kakhulu ixabiso lebhidi ye-aluminium fluoride, nto leyo ekhokelele ekwehleni kwamaxabiso entengiselwano kwimarike ye-aluminium fluoride.Ngokubanzi, iSMM iqikelela ukuba ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari, ixabiso lilonke le-aluminiyam electrolysis yafikelela malunga ne-16,600 yuan ngetoni nganye, inyuke nge-320 yuan ngetoni ukusuka malunga ne-16,280 yuan ngetoni nganye embindini kaDisemba wonyaka ophelileyo.Ngokunyuka ngaxeshanye kwixabiso le-aluminium electrolysis, inzuzo yamashishini e-electrolytic aluminium nawo abone ukunyuka okuthile.
3. Ukuncipha okuncinci kwiMveliso ye-Aluminium Electrolysis kunye neNqanaba le-Inventory ephantsi
Ngokutsho kweNational Bureau of Statistics, ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuNovemba ka-2023, imveliso ye-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic yaseChina yayiziitoni ezizigidi ezingama-38, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka nge-3.9%.Imveliso ngoNovemba yehle kancinci yaya kutsho kwi-3.544 yezigidi zeetoni, ikakhulu ngenxa yokuthintelwa kobonelelo lombane kummandla waseYunnan.Njengoko ingxelo Mysteel, ukususela ekupheleni kukaNovemba, China eyakhiwe electrolytic umthamo aluminiyam kwaba 45.0385 yezigidi zeetoni, kunye nomthamo wokusebenza 42.0975 yezigidi zeetoni kunye izinga lokusetyenziswa umthamo 93.47%, ukuhla 2.62% ngenyanga-ngenyanga.NgoNovemba, ukuthathwa kwe-aluminiyam ekrwada yaseTshayina yayiziitoni ezingama-194,000, ngaphantsi kancinci kuno-Oktobha, kodwa isekwinqanaba eliphezulu.
Ukususela nge-5 kaJanuwari, uluhlu lwe-aluminium ye-Shanghai Futures Exchange yayiyi-96,637 yeetoni, iqhubeka nokuhla kunye nokuhlala kwinqanaba eliphantsi xa kuthelekiswa nexesha elifanayo kwiminyaka edlulileyo.Umthamo wogunyaziso wawuyi-38,917 yeetoni, ukubonelela ngenkxaso ethile kumaxabiso azayo.Ukususela nge-4 kaJanuwari, i-Mysteel ibike ukuba i-inventory yentlalo ye-aluminium ye-electrolytic yayiyi-446,000 yeetoni, i-11.3 yeetoni eziliwaka ngaphantsi kwexesha elifanayo kunyaka ophelileyo, ebonisa ukuba ukujikeleza kwendawo yonke yasekhaya kuhlala kuqinile.Ngenxa yobuthathaka bemisebenzi esezantsi phambi koMnyhadala weNtwasahlobo kunye nokwehla okulindelekileyo kwisantya sokuguqulwa kwamanzi e-aluminiyam ngamashishini e-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic, i-inventory ye-aluminium ingot inokukhawuleza kwisiqingatha sesibini sikaJanuwari.Ngomhla we-5 kaJanuwari, uluhlu lwempahla ye-aluminium ye-LME yema kwiitoni ezingama-558,200, inyuswe kancinci ukusuka phakathi kuDisemba ephantsi, kodwa isekwinqanaba eliphantsi lilonke, liphezulu kancinci kunexesha elifanayo kulo nyaka uphelileyo.Umthamo weerisithi ezibhalisiweyo zogcino bezitoni ezingama-374,300, kunye nesantya esikhawulezayo sokubuyisela.Ikhontrakthi yendawo ye-aluminium ye-LME yabona i-contango encinci, ebonisa ukuba unikezelo lwendawo alubonisi ukuqina okubalulekileyo.
4. Ukunciphisa iMfuno yeMfuno phambi koNyaka oMtsha waseTshayina
Ngokutsho kwe-SMM, emva koSuku loNyaka oMtsha, i-inventory ye-billet ye-aluminium yangena kwisigqi sokugcina ngokukhawuleza.Ukususela ngomhla we-4 kaJanuwari, i-inventory ye-aluminium yasekhaya yasekhaya ifikelele kwiitoni ze-82,000, ukwanda kweetoni ze-17,900 xa kuthelekiswa noLwesine odlulileyo.Ukufika okugxininisiweyo kwempahla ngexesha leeholide, ukwehla kwemisebenzi ephantsi komlambo ngaphambi koNyaka oMtsha waseTshayina, kunye nezinga eliphezulu lamaxabiso e-aluminiyam acinezele ukuthengwa kwe-downstream, yayizezona zizathu zokukhula kwe-inventory.Kwiveki yokuqala ye-2024, izinga lokusebenza kwiprofayili ye-aluminium yasekhaya ehamba phambili iqhubekile ukuba buthathaka, kwi-52.7%, kunye nokuhla kweveki kwi-2.1%.Ezinye iireyithi zeprofayili yeprofayili yokwakha kunye nee-odolo zinqabile, ngelixa amashishini eprofayile yemoto ehamba phambili ahlala kumazinga aphezulu okusebenza.Imakethi yeprofayili ye-photovoltaic ijongene nokhuphiswano olwandisiweyo, kwaye imiqulu yeodolo nayo yehla.Ukusuka kwi-terminal perspective, ukuhla okunyukayo konyaka-ngonyaka kwindawo entsha yokwakha kunye nommandla wokwakha ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuNovemba kubonise ukuphuculwa okuncinci, kodwa imeko yokuthengisa kwinqanaba lomthengi lokugqibela lahlala libuthathaka.NgoNovemba ka-2023, imveliso yemoto yaseChina kunye neentengiso zagqiba i-3.093 yezigidi kunye ne-2.97 yezigidi zeeyunithi, ngokulandelanayo, ukubhalisa ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka we-29.4% kunye ne-27.4%, ebonisa izinga lokukhula ngokukhawuleza.
5. Imekobume yoQoqosho oluKhulu lwaNgaphandle
I-Federal Reserve igcine i-benchmark yezinga lenzala engatshintshiyo ngexesha lentlanganiso kaDisemba, kunye ne-Powell ekhupha izibonakaliso ze-dovish, echaza ukuba i-Federal Reserve iqwalasela kwaye ixoxa ngokucuthwa kwexabiso lenzala efanelekileyo, kunye nokwenzeka kokunciphisa izinga liye langena ingqwalasela.Njengoko ulindelo lokwehliswa kwamaxabiso luqina, uluvo lwentengiso luhlala lunethemba, kwaye akukho zinto zibalulekileyo zimbi zoqoqosho zilindelwe kwixesha elifutshane.Isalathiso sedola yaseMelika sihlehle ngaphantsi kwe-101, kwaye izivuno zebhondi yase-US nazo zinqabile.Imizuzu yentlanganiso kaDisemba eyapapashwa kamva ayizange ibe maxongo njengezimvo zentlanganiso yangaphambili, kwaye nedatha elungileyo yengqesho engeyiyo eyefama ngoDisemba nayo yayixhasa ingcamango yokuba umgaqo-mali othintelayo uya kuqhubeka ixesha elide.Nangona kunjalo, oku akuthinteli ulindelo olusisiseko lokuncitshiswa kwamaxabiso amathathu ngo-2024. Ngaphambi koNyaka omtsha waseTshayina, ukuhla ngokukhawuleza kwimeko ye-macroeconomic akunakwenzeka.I-PMI yokuvelisa yase-China ngoDisemba yehle nge-0.4% ukuya kwi-49%, ebonisa ukuncipha kwezalathi zemveliso kunye nemfuno.Phakathi kwazo, isalathiso see-odolo ezitsha sehle nge-0.7% ukuya kwi-48.7%, nto leyo ebonisa ukuba isiseko sokuvuselela uqoqosho lwangaphakathi sisafuna ukomelezwa.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jan-22-2024